singing while Rome drowns (or, ostriches)

Theres a scene from Eric the Viking where an island sinks beneath the waves, following the spilling of innocent blood by one of Eric's men. The island's inhabitants, refusing to acknowledge the sinking of their home, sit atop a hill singing joyfully until the last voice is reduced to drowned gurgle. I cant help relating those singing islanders to anthropogenic climate change skeptics, singing joyfully away while the water gets higher every year.

I guess another hack allegory would be that of the ostrich with its head in the sand - in any case, the point of the image is the willful denial of the nasty shit going on around you, simply because you dont want to have to confront said nasty shit.

The extent to which this is actually occuring at the moment is arguable, because its not yet obvious enough to a majority of people that there is actually any nasty shit happening. While cyclones Yasi et al, or the QLD floods had an obvious impact, I think that many people are having trouble making a link between these things and anthropogenic climate change. Or, maybe they are subconsciously, but dont like the implications when anyone points it out - witness the hysterical outrage when Bob Brown suggested a link between use of fossil fuels and extreme weather events.

The question is, how long will people be able to keep up the facade? What level of extreme event does it take for a majority to sit up and make a clear decision that some action must be taken? My thinking is that this species is still sufficiently unevolved that we are only capable of responding to immediate and obvious threats - my guess is that its going to take something like a sudden increase in sea levels, or explosive methane hydrate outgassings in Canada/Northern Eurasia, before we gain a sufficient quroum or consensus, to warrant action.

By which time, of course, it may be too late anyway.

The other possibility, which I find far more frightening, is that our potential for self deception is so great that the "climate skeptics" will be able to continue their denial ad infinitum. Sea levels rising explosively? Must be due to the patterns of sun spots. Greenland iceshelf collapsing? Too many overweight polar bears pushing the ice ever downwards...

Of course another potential is that there may be no sudden event, no change which is obvious enough for the Daily Telegraph to pick up on. That may be even more catastrophic. Much like the frog in the slowly boiling pan of water, we might never get the chance to figure out the shit that we are in, until its closed over our heads. So to speak.